China has sent its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as China escalates tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.
This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.
“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.
Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.
That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.
China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.
An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.
On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the island over the past 24 hours.
Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.
Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.
Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.
Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.
On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.
Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.
In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.
While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.
Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.
“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”
The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.
However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.
Elena Vance is a digital strategist with over a decade of experience in UK business consulting, specializing in technology-driven growth solutions.