A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
